基于遥感和气象数据对辽东湾海冰变化预测研究

THE FORECAST MODEL OF SEA ICE CHANGES IN LIAODONG BAY USING REMOTE SENSING AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA

辽东湾是渤海海冰灾害最严重的区域,精确预报海冰的空间分布、动态变化,对降低海冰灾害风险具有重要的作用。本文以辽东湾为研究区,以MODIS数据和气象数据为数据源,根据2010/2011年度到2014/2015年度辽东湾海冰5年结冰信息得出该海域结冰概率,建立营口气象站积温与结冰概率的关系模型,对辽东湾2015/2016年度海冰初冰期至盛冰期的发展及空间分布进行模拟、预报,结果表明:利用结冰概率与营口积温相关关系可以实现对辽东湾海冰的动态预测,利用混淆矩阵对海冰提取结果检验,总体精度在90%以上,为渤海及其它地区局部条件下海冰预测提供参考。

Liaodong Bay is the most serious region of sea ice disaster in the Bohai Sea, North China. Precise forecasts of sea ice spatial distribution and dynamic change are very important for reducing the risk of sea icing. Meteorological and remote sensing data of this area in 2010/2011 to 2014/2015 were collected, from which forecast of the ice in the bay is conducted. A model of the relationship between the freezing probability and accumulated temperature at the Yingkou Meteorological Station that situated by the bay was established, with which the sea ice spatial distribution and dynamic change were forecasted. Simulation and case study results show that our model worked well for the task. Using the confusion matrix, the performance of the model was tested, showing an overall accuracy of 〉90%. Therefore, the model provides a reference to the sea ice forecast under the local conditions in the Bohai Sea and nearby regions.