基于爆炸渗流理论公共危机伪信息的爆发机制研究

Research on Outbreak Mechanism of False Information in Public Crises Based on Explosive Percolation Theory

[目的/意义]公共危机的瞬间爆发常常伴随伪信息的"推波助澜",伪信息爆炸性的大规模传播,不仅会引起人群的恐慌,其引发的公共危机造成的二次危害更会带来难以估量的损失,这对政府的治理提出了更高的要求。[方法/过程]文章基于爆炸渗流理论,结合SI模型提出了改进的伪信息传播模型。通过对最大连通分支、爆发阈值、分支合并和传播速率等指标的分析,探究了伪信息爆炸性出现的爆发机制。[结果/结论]研究发现,伪信息的爆发存在一个阈值,小于阈值处爆发规模几乎为0;超过阈值后,会在短时间内迅速爆发。伪信息在产生初期感染性最强,随着仿真时间的增加,逐渐减弱。在伪信息频现并引发公共危机的大环境下,研究其爆发机制对政府进行控制治理有重要意义。[局限]现实情况更加复杂,模型有一定的局限性。

[Purpose/significance] The sudden outbreak of public crisis is often accompanied by ＂false information＂, and the large-scale spread of false information will not only cause panics, but also lead to public crisis which could cause secondary damage and incalculable losses. This puts forward higher requirements on the governance. [ Method/process ] Based on the theory of explo- sivepercolation and combined with SI model, this paper proposes an improved false information dissemination model. Through the a- nalysis of such indicators as the largest ~luster, explosive threshold, cluster merging and dissemination rate, the paper explores the exploding mechanism of the emergence of false information. [ Result/conclusion ] The study finds that there is a threshold for the outbreak of the false information, and the outbreak scale is almost zero when the amount of false information is below the threshold. However, when it is higher than the threshold, the outbreak will occur rapidly in a short time. False information is most infective in the early stage, and gradually weakens with the increase of simulation time. Under the circumstance of frequent occurrence of false information and its triggering of public crisis, it is of great significance to the government control and governance by studying its out- break mechanism. [ Limitations] The model has some limitations because the real situations are more complex.