延迟退休年龄政策对劳动力市场影响效应分析

Research on the Impacts of Delayed Retirement Policy on the Labor Market

目前对于延迟退休政策实施对劳动力市场的影响研究主要集中在宏观层面,较少涉及区域、省份等微观层面,尤其是针对老龄化程度较高的区域、省份的研究更是较少见之,本文以辽宁省为例,因为辽宁进入老龄化社会的时间比较早,老龄化程度比较高,近年来辽宁平均人口增长率较低,在这些特殊省情下,探讨延迟退休对劳动力市场的影响效应意义重大。方法:从延迟退休1年滞留在劳动力市场的人群及延迟退休涉及的人群整体两个方面探讨延迟退休对劳动力市场的短期和长期影响效应。结论:在短期,尤其是人均GDP下降的情况下,对青年人口就业会产生较大挤出效应,在长期,对人力资源总量的平衡和结构的调整具有积极作用,提出辽宁在实施延迟退休政策时应注意的问题,包括:选择合适的时机,分类实施延迟退休;结合经济政策、就业政策推进延迟退休,以及建立养老金指数化机制等。

At present, the research on the impact of delayed retirement implementation on the labor market is mainly focused on the macro level, which is less concerned with the micro level of regions, provinces, especially for the regions and provinces with relatively high aging degree. This paper takes Liaoning Province as an example, because Liaoning has entered the aging society for a relatively early time, and the aging degree is higher. In recent years, the average population growth rate of Liaoning is relatively low. Under these special circumstances, discussing the effect of delayed retirement on the labor market. Methods： from two aspects of the population of delayed retirement 1 years in the labor market and the overall population involved in the delayed retirement. Conclusion： in the short term, especially the decrease of per capita GDP, the employment of young people will have a larger extrusion effect. In the long run, it has a positive effect on the balance of the total human resources and the adjustment of the structure.then put forward the countermeasures, including： Choosing the right time to classify the delayed retirement in different industries, promoting the delayed retirement through combining with economic policy and employment policy, and establishing the pension index mechanism.