美国退出《巴黎协定》的影响及中国应对研究

The Impact of the U.S. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and China's Response

美国退出《巴黎协定》是全球气候治理的重大事件,将在治理资金、领导力赤字、履约信心等方面产生负面影响,但不会从根本上动摇全球气候治理体系。美国最终选择退出《巴黎协定》表面上是由于美国国内政治因素和总统特朗普个人性格偏好所致,根本原因在于《巴黎协定》"自下而上"的减排模式和自愿法律机制。对中国而言,美国的退出为中国增加在全球气候治理中的国际影响力提供了机遇,但也有可能打乱既定的发展战略和发展节奏,并且面临着内部调整经济结构和国际社会期待的双重压力。中国需要顺势而为,积极引领,有限担当,适时适当地填补美国退出《巴黎协定》所产生的空缺,构建国际气候治理C5领导模式。

The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is a major event in global climate governance and will have a negative impact on governance funds, the deficit in leadership and con-fidence in compliance, but will not fundamentally shake the global climate governance system. The rea-son why the United States chose to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on the surface is due to the do-mestic political factors in the United States and the personal preference of Trump. The fundamental rea-son is that the Paris Agreement "bottom-up" emission reduction model and voluntary legal mechanism.For China, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement provides China with an opportunity to high-light its international influence in global climate governance and may also upset China's established de-velopment strategy and pace of development. China is facing pressure from internal structural adjust-ment and external international Social expectations of the double pressure. China needs to take the op-portunity to take the initiative, lead actively and assume limited responsibilities. It appropriately andtimely completes the vacancy caused by the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and builds the C5 leadership model for international climate governance.