中国煤炭产业景气测度及其运行特征分析

Boom Measurement and Operational Characteristics of China’s Coal Industry

文章基于主成分分析方法,从煤炭供给、煤炭市场、煤炭效益、生产要素四个方面构建反映煤炭产业景气周期的指标体系,利用1953—2016年的产业数据,对我国煤炭产业景气进行测度,划分为十个产业景气周期。并在产业景气周期特征分析的基础上,探寻煤炭产业景气的运行规律。

Based on the principal component analysis method, this paper constructs the index system that reflects the boom cycle of coal industry from four aspects of coal supply, coal market, coal benefit and production factors, uses the industrial data from 1953 to 2016 to measure the coal industry boom in China, divided into ten boom cycles, and based on the analysis of industry cycle characteristics, the paper probes into the operating rules of coal industry boom.