多重复合性道路交通事故逆向分步再现分析

Retrograde stepwise reconstruction analysis of multiple compound traffic accidents

为再现多重复合性道路交通事故过程以确定事故致因,提出逆向分步再现仿真方法。首先,鉴定分析所采集的少量事故信息,依据鉴定结果将复合事故划分为若干碰撞时序;然后,先仿真后端时序的碰撞过程,得出该时序碰撞前车辆运动状态,利用一致性约束方案判定再现过程的一致性,若一致,再以同样方式仿真前一碰撞时序,依此步骤逆向推进,直至事故仿真完毕,确定事故过程及致因;最后,以一起双时序复合事故的再现验证该方法。结果表明：该方法能够较好地再现双时序复合事故,且误差率较小;前期的事故信息采集及鉴定分析有利于正确判定事故形态。

In order to reconstruct multiple compound traffic accidents and determine their causes,a method of retrograde stepwise reconstruction was developed. Firstly,a small amount of accident information collected was analyzed and identified,according to the results and a complex accident was divided into several collision sequences. Then,the collision process of the back-end timing was simulated and the timeseries vehicle motion state was obtained,the consistency of the reproduction process was determined by using the consistency constraint scheme,if consistent,the previous collision sequence will be simulated in the same way,and this step will be pushed backward continuously until the accident simulation was completed. The process and causes of the accident were determined. Finally,the method was verified by reconstructing a double-sequence compound accident. The results show that this method can be used to reconstruct the double-sequence compound accident accurately,and make the error rate smaller,and that collection and evaluation analysis of information on the earlier stage of an accident are beneficial to determining the formation of the accident.