考虑关联与替代关系的应急物资储备量模型

Decision-making model for emergency material reserve considering correlation and substitution

应急物资储备量决策是应急管理的重点工作之一,需要兼顾以人为本和经济性两方面的要求.针对应急救援的阶段性特点,应急物资被划分为响应期物资和恢复期物资.其中,恢复期物资需求量会受到响应期物资缺货量的影响.首先考虑两阶段应急物资之间的关联关系,构建了考虑关联关系的应急物资储备量决策模型,分析了模型最优解的特征;进一步,分析了同类应急物资之间的替代性,构建了考虑关联与替代关系的应急物资储备量决策模型,设计了基于蒙特卡洛仿真的求解算法;最后,通过算例分析,验证了模型的有效性.理论和计算分析的结果表明,将应急物资的关联和替代关系与储备量决策综合考虑,可在保证供应的前提下减少应急物资的储备量.

The decision making of emergency material reserves is one of the key topics in emergency manage-ment, which needs to balance the people-oriented demand with the economical request. Based on the two- stage characteristic of emergency rescue, emergency material is divided into response material and recovery material. The demand of recovery material partly depends on the shortage of response material. A decision- making model is proposed considering this correlation. Then the properties of the optimal solution are ana- lyzed. Furthermore, taking the substitution among recovery materials into account, the model is further im- proved. An algorithm is applied to solve it based on Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the influence and significance of correlation and substitution on decision making of emer- gency material reserves.