基于CA-Markov模型的安溪县茶叶种植区动态变化

Dynamics of tea planting areas in Anxi County based on CA-Markov model

安溪县是山地茶叶经济的典型代表和成功范例,了解安溪县茶叶种植区域时空扩张对于我国山地茶叶经济发展模式具有借鉴意义。本研究对安溪县1991、1998、1999、2006、2007、2010和2015年的遥感影像进行解译,分析不同时期茶叶种植区域扩张动态变化。同时,运用CA-Markov模型与Logistic回归模型对2015年土地利用类型进行模拟,预测结果与实际解译结果的Kappa系数为0.787,说明模拟结果可信。在此基础上,运用CAMarkov模型对2020年土地利用变化进行模拟。结果表明,安溪县茶叶种植区主要由林地转化而来,其面积呈现明显的阶段上升状态,可以分为1991—1999、1999—2007、2007—2015年3个上升时段。总体上,安溪县茶叶种植区域属于慢速变化型,茶园土地利用动态度指数为14.88%。茶叶种植区域呈现出从早期以东北部为主向全县扩张变化的趋势,至2020年还会向安溪县的西南方向进一步扩张,原来零散的茶园变成聚集的规模种植园区。模拟结果可为安溪县的茶叶种植规划布局提供参考。

Anxi County is a representative and successful example of mountain tea economy.Understanding the spatial and temporal expansion of tea planting area in Anxi County is of great significance to the development mode of mountain tea economy in China. Here,we interpreted remote sensing images of Anxi County in 1991,1998,1999,2006,2007,2010 and 2015,and analyzed the expansion of tea planting area at different periods. Land use change in 2015 was simulated using CA-Markov model and Logistic regression model. Compared with the interpretation data of 2015,Kappa coefficient of the simulated results was 0.787,indicating that the simulated results were credible. Then,land use change in 2020 was simulated. The results showed that the tea planting area in Anxi County showed gradual rise in three stages,which were from1991 to 1999,1999 to 2007 and 2007 to 2015. Overall,tea planting area changed slowly,and the land use dynamic index of tea plantations was 14.88%. Spatially,tea plantation area in Anxi County was expanded from the northeast to the entire county,and would further expand to the southwestern part,with the scattered small-area tea plantations merging into some large-area plantations. Our results may provide guideline for planning layout of future tea-planting in the county.