铁路投资、周转量与经济发展相互作用分析

Analysis of the Mutual Effects between Investment,Turnover in China's Railway Transportation Industry and the Development of the National Economy

研究目的:铁路运输业是我国交通运输网络中的中坚力量,与国民经济发展有着重要联系。选取铁路运输业固定资产投资、铁路运输业换算周转量、国内生产总值为研究变量,通过构建三元向量自回归模型,对三者进行格兰杰因果关系检验,找出三者之间是否具有相互促进作用,并分析原因,进而提出相关政策建议,以期为国家铁路政策的完善提供参考,更好地发挥铁路运输业的重要作用。研究结论:(1)铁路运输业的固定资产投资与换算周转量之间具有相互促进的作用;(2)铁路运输业换算周转量与国内生产总值之间具有相互促进的作用;(3)铁路运输业固定资产投资对国内生产总值具有单向促进作用,而国内生产总值的增加仅是为铁路运输业固定资产投资提供了潜在动力,并没有实际影响到铁路运输业固定资产投资的增加;(4)本研究成果可应用于铁路发展政策的进一步修改完善,为国家相关部门政策制定提供理论依据与决策参考,进而改善我国铁路运输状况,促进铁路运输发展。

Research purposes： Railway transportation industry is the major force in China＇ s transpotation network,which is closely related to the development of national economy. In this paper,fixed assets investment,converted turnover and gross domestic product were selected as the research variables,by building a ternary vector autoregressive model,the Granger causality test was carried out for the three,whether there is mutual promotion between the three and the reasons were analyzed,and then some suggestions were given,to provide a reference for the national railway policy and give full play to the important role of the railway transportation industry.Research conclusions：（ 1） There is a mutual promotion between the fixed assets investment of the railway transportation industry and the converted turnover.（ 2） There is a mutual promotion between the converted turnover and GDP.（ 3） The fixed assets investment has a positive effect on GDP. And the increase of GDP only provides potential impetus for the investment of the fixed assets in railway transportation industry,but doesn＇ t actually affect the increase of fixed assets investment in railway transportation industry.（ 4） The research results can be applied to the further modification and improvement of railway development policies.