高速公路出口匝道事故严重度预测模型

Accidents severity prediction model for freeway exit ramp

以高速公路主线分流区和匝道主体段作为研究对象,将出口匝道类型进行分类。然后,引入联系函数,选择匝道限速、匝道交通量作为位置函数中主效应变量,选取匝道类型和匝道结构作为尺度变量,建立事故严重度预测模型。并从照明、车型、相交道路类型等方面对模型进行修正。最后,通过拟合度检验及伪检验,验证了模型的有效性,并对各类匝道的安全性进行分析,结果表明:类型I>类型III>类型II>类型IV。

There are mainly four types of freeway exit ramp. This paper adopts link function considering the grade of accidents severity. Accidents severity prediction model is developed taking ramp limited speed and traffic volume as main variables in location function and ramp type and structure as scaling variables. The model is modified by light, type of vehicle, type of intersecting road and other factors. The proposed model is validated through goodness-of-fit test and fake R2 test. By analyzing the influence of different ramp types on accident severity, the results of crash predicted models show that the order of type I〉 type III 〉type II 〉 type IV.