结合金融周期对房地产市场形势的分析判断

Analysis and Judgement of Real Estate Market Based on Financial Cycle

结合金融周期形势,从总体形势、房地产政策、房地产走势三方面分析房地产市场形势。研究得出房地产政策将继续坚持宏观调控措施不动摇、加快实施房地产供给侧结构性改革以促进供需平衡;控制居民杠杆率的过快增长、因地制宜调整棚改政策。预计全国商品房销售增速继续回落,房地产开发投资增速将稳中趋缓,房地产企业分化更加严重。

This paper combines the situation of financial cycle to analyze the situation of real estate market from three aspects of the overall situation,real estate policy and real estate trend. Research shows that the real estate policy will continue to adhere to the macro adjustment and control measures,accelerate the implementation of real estate supply side structural reform to promote the balance of supply and demand,and control the excessive growth of the leveraging rate of the residents,adjust the policy of the shantytown reform according to local conditions the growth rate of commercial housing sales will continue to decline. The growth rate of investment in Real Estate development will decline steadily,and the differentiation of real estate enterprises will become more serious.