管制运行亚健康状态的Ward系统聚类及分析

Ward system clustering and analysis of control operation sub-healthy state

管制运行是整个空管系统运行中的重要部分,确定其状态可为不安全事故预防提供基础。首先从管制员工作负荷方面分析提取用于评价管制运行状态的变量,其次分别使用最短距离法、最长距离法、中间距离法、类平均法、重心法以及离差平方和法6种系统聚类分析方法将样本数据分类,综合各方法的优缺点及聚类结果,使用离差平方和法得到最终聚类结果,并据此将管制运行状态划分为管制运行健康状态和管制运行亚健康状态,又将管制运行亚健康状态划分为管制运行稳定亚健康状态以及管制运行不稳定亚健康状态。分析结果表明该分类结果科学可靠,在安全管理理论研究中具有重要意义。

Control operation is an important part of the whole ATC system operation, and the confirmation of its state provides basis for unsafe accidents prevention. Firstly, evaluation variables of control operation state are analyzed and extracted from the aspect of controller workload. Secondly, six kinds of system cluster analyzing methods are used to classify the sample data, including Single method, Complete method, Median method, Average method, Centroid method and Ward method. Summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of each method and their clustering results, final clustering results are obtained by Ward method, basing on which, control operation state is divided into control operation healthy state and control operation sub-healthy state, and the latter one is then divided into control operation stable sub-healthy state and control operation unstable sub-healthy state. Analyzing results show that the classification is scientific and reliable, and is of great significance for the theoretical study of safety management.