中国与140个伙伴国出入境旅游市场反转及影响因素分析——基于1995—2016年客流量数据

Analysis of inbound and outbound tourism market reversal and influencing factors between China and 140 partner countries:based on tourist flow data from 1995 to 2016

提出出入境旅游市场反转的概念，依据1995—2016年中国与140个伙伴国（地区）出入境客流量数据，探究中国出入境旅游市场反转时空演化轨迹，并分析影响市场反转的主要因素。结果发现：世界八大地区中，中国赴非洲旅游规模始终大于入境旅游；东南亚与南亚于2004年和2011年分别发生逆向反转与正向反转；欧洲、大洋洲、东北亚、西亚与中亚、北美洲反转时间依次为2011年、2013年、2014年、2015年、2015年；南美洲地区尚未反转。亚洲市场中，早期、中期、近期反转国家数目分别为5个、6个和19个，未反转国家为17个。洲际市场中，非洲、欧洲、大洋洲、北美洲、南美洲早期反转的国家数目为1个、4个、1个、0个、0个；中期反转的国家为10个、11个、3个、0个、0个；近期反转的国家数目为10个、14个、5个、10个和4个；未反转数目为4个、8个、1个、4个和3个，反转程度分别为98．72％、86．83％、99．99％、83．47％、53．4％。影响出入境旅游市场反转的因素中，ADS（approved destination status）旅游协议是首位因素，交通区位是至关重要的空间因素，而国家综合实力是推动与制约反转实现的经济因素。

A new concept of inbound and outbound tourism market reversal is proposed. Based on the data of inbound and outbound tourist flow between China and 140 tourism partners （regions） from 1995 to 2016, China＇s tourism reversal situation was explored and the main factors affecting market reversal were analyzed. The results show that in the eight regions of the world, the scale of Chinese people traveling to Africa has always exceeded that of entry. In Southeast Asia and South Asia, reverse inversion and positive inversion occurred in 2004 and 2011, respectively. In Europe, Oceania, Northeast Asia, West ＆ Central Asia, North America, the reversal time was 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2015.South America did not reverse. In the Asian market, the number of reversal countries in the early, medium, and recent was 5, 6, and 19, respectively, and there were 17 non-reversed countries. In the intercontinental market, the number of countries with early reversal in Africa, Europe, Oceania, north America and south America was 1, 4, 1, 0 and 0; they were 10, 11, 3, 0 and 0 with mid-term reversal; they were 10, 14, 5, 10 and 4 with recent reversal. The number of non-reversal is 4, 8, 1, 4, 3 and the degree of reversal was 98.72%, 86.83%, 99.99%, 83.47% and 53.4% ,respectively. Among the factors affecting the formation of the spatial-temporal pattern of tourism inversion, the ADS tourism agreement is the first factor, the transportation location is a crucial external resistance, and the country＇s overall economic strength is simultaneously promoted and constrained to achieve reversal.