稀有事件仿真算法综述

A Review of Rare Event Simulation

稀有事件因其发生概率很低、危害性较大而具有较高的研究价值,传统的蒙特卡洛方法很难对这一问题进行有效分析,稀有事件仿真技术可以通过方差缩减方法实现稀有事件的快速采样,进而对稀有事件发生的概率进行高效估计。近年来,该技术得到了快速的发展并广泛应用于多个领域,基于此,对稀有事件仿真算法的研究现状进行综述;概括、分析了主流算法的基本原理、存在的问题及研究进展;同时阐述和总结了算法的应用领域;探讨了稀有事件仿真技术未来的发展趋势。

Rare-event has a great significance for its lower probability of occurrence and greater harmfulness, the traditional Monte Carlo method is difficult to analyze it effectively. Rare-event simulation technique which is developed quickly and applied in many areas can sample the rare-event effectively with variance reduction methods and can estimate the occurrence probability of rare-event. The research status of rare-event simulation technique is summarized firstly; the principles, problems and progress of the main methods are analyzed and concluded secondly; after that the application fields of the technique are elaborated and summarized; the future development tendency of rare event simulation technique is discussed finally.