基于序贯仿真试验的作战体系能力分析优化方法

Analysis and Optimization for Combat Capability Based on Sequential Simulation Experiment

针对作战体系能力的分析优化问题,采用了一种序贯仿真试验的方法予以解决。给出了面向精度约束的体系能力仿真评估方法,实现了仿真运行次数的控制;开展灵敏度分析试验,确定影响体系能力的关键要素,聚焦了研究范围;开展回归分析试验,建立了关键要素与体系能力之间的关系模型;在此基础上,通过优化实现了以尽可能小的代价得到尽可能大的体系能力提升。在应用实例中,采用本文方法有效地指导了某防空作战体系能力的提升。

To deal with the optimization of combat capability, the sequential simulation experiment method was proposed. The simulation evaluation method with precision constraint was used to control the simulation running times. The sensitivity analysis experiment was carried out to identify the important factors affecting the combat capability. The relation model between the important factors and combat capability was constructed via regression analysis experiment. To get the combat capability improvement as large as possible with the price as small as possible, the optimization was used. In the application example, the air-defense combat capability was improved by the method.