宏观审慎管理机制对货币政策的影响效应研究

Research on the Effect of Macro Prudential Assessment on Monetary Policy

本文将跨境资金流动纳入货币政策的分析框架,构建了我国开放经济条件下由家庭、企业、银行、中央银行和零售商五部门组成的逆周期调控宏观审慎管理DSGE模型。模型用Matlab模拟了技术增长、国际收支差额、银行资本资产比约束、家庭贷款价值比约束、企业贷款价值比约束五种随机冲击,以及中央银行提高法定存款准备金率的确定性冲击对宏观经济波动的影响,分析了宏观审慎管理和货币政策的协调配合机制。研究发现,宏观审慎管理和货币政策两种工具无法替代,但可互相补充。逆周期宏观审慎管理机制的引入将在多方面对金融体系的运行和货币政策的实施产生深刻影响。

This paper brought cross-border capital flows into the analytical framework of monetary policy and established DSGE models consisting of households, firms, banks and retailers under the open economy in China. Using Matlab, the DSGE model simulated the effects of five random shocks such as technical growth, BOP surplus, bank＇s capital-to-asset ratio,bank loans to households＇ collateral value ratio and bank loans to firms＇ collateral value ratio, as well as a certain shocks such as the impact of increasing legal deposit-reserve ratio on the macro-economic fluctuation in China. Also, this paper analyzed the mechanism of coordinating macro prudential assessment and monetary policy. The study found that macro prudential assessment and monetary policy could complement but not replace each other. Therefore, the introduction of macro prudential assessment based on counter-cyclical regulation would have a profound influence on domestic financial system and monetary policy in many aspects.