我国P2P互联网借贷行业综合收益率的影响因素研究

Factors of Comprehensive Yield of P2P Internet Lending Industry in China

通过对我国P2P互联网借贷行业2014年1月至2017年11月间行业综合收益率的实证分析,结果表明:长期来看,P2P行业综合收益率与宏观市场利率、资金市场供需状况和平均借款期限存在稳定的均衡关系。P2P网贷作为一种新型金融产品,其综合收益率的变动紧跟市场基准利率的步调,但不同于一般金融产品,其风险溢价水平并不完全取决于资金市场的自由配置,两者之间的协整关系主要体现在综合收益率对行业交易规模的影响方面,且交易规模对综合收益率的变化十分敏感。由于P2P行业尚处于整合阶段,其综合收益率呈现下降趋势,且随着P2P行业开始进入严监管时代,平台利率大幅回落,逐渐回归理性,行业综合收益率未来继续下降将成常态。

The paper analyzed the comprehensive yield of P2 PInternet lending industry in China between January 2014 and November 2017,the results showed that in the long term,there was a stable equilibrium relationship among the comprehensive yield of P2 Pindustry,the macro interest rate,capital market supply and demand and the average interest rate.As a new financial product,P2 Pnetwork credit,its comprehensive yield change kept up with the pace of market benchmark interest rate,the risk premium was not totally depended on capital market free configuration,which was different from the general financial products.The co-integration relationship between the two was mainly manifested on the impact of comprehensive yield on industry trade scale,moreover,the scale was rather sensitive to the change of the comprehensive yield.Due to P2 Pindustry being still in the stage of integration,the comprehensive yield showed a trend of decline,and as P2 Pindustry began to enter into the age of strict regulation,interest rate had dropped sharply,gradually returned to rational,the comprehensive yields of P2 PInternet lending industry would continue to fall into normalcy in the future.