R&D投入与经济增长——基于人力资本门槛模型和匹配视角的分析

R&D Expenditure and Economic Growth——Analysis Based on Human Capital Threshold Model and the Perspective of Matching

基于中国31个省份2000—2015年面板数据,运用面板门槛模型实证考察发现,R&D投入对经济增长的贡献存在基于人力资本的单一门槛效应,表现为在其他条件不变时,R&D投入对经济增长的推动作用随着人力资本水平的提高而提高。进一步研究表明,跨越人力资本门槛值后,不断增加的R&D投入可能会引发边际经济产出递减的研发悖论现象,但实现R&D投入与研发人力资本匹配可以引致技术进步持续增长,有效规避研发悖论困境。因此,我国在增加R&D投入的同时应提高人力资本水平并优化R&D投入与研发人力资本的匹配程度,从而实现经济的平稳过渡和适度增长。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2015,empirical study using the panel threshold model finds that the contribution of R＆D expenditure to economic growth has a single threshold effect based on human capital.It shows that the effect of R＆D expenditure on economic growth is enhanced with the improvement of human capital level when other conditions remain unchanged.Further research shows that after the threshold of human capital is crossed,there will be a paradox which the increasing R＆D expenditure may lead to diminishing marginal economic output.However,matching R＆D expenditure with R＆D human capital can lead to continuous growth of technological progress and effectively avoid the dilemma of R＆D paradox.Therefore,while increasing R＆D expenditure,our country should raise the level of human capital and optimize the matching of R＆D expenditure with R＆D human capital so as to achieve a smooth transition and moderate growth of economy.