河北省主要农作物生产时空格局变化特征及安全评价

Spatio-temporal Pattern Variation and Safety Evaluation of Crops in Hebei Province

阐述主要粮食作物的时空格局变化特征,对中国粮食安全决策意义重大。基于河北省县市近15 a（2001-2015年）的农业数据资料,采用分段线性趋势以及生产指标-产量波动系数来分析河北省主要粮食作物的时空变化特征,并对河北省粮食作物进行安全评价。结果表明：从产量与播种面积来看,近15 a河北省主要粮食作物变化趋势经历了由波动减少到稳步增长2个阶段,且变化趋势显著;从空间格局变化来看,大致呈由南向北逐渐递减的规律分布,其中不同农作物分布规律各有差异;从粮食安全方面来看,河北省70%以上年份粮食波动系数均超过中国粮食安全平均水平,粮食波动系数较高,粮食安全风险较大;但从人均粮食产量来看,安全程度相对比较乐观,粮食安全状况渐趋于平稳。研究可为河北省粮食生产时空布局的优化、结构调整与社会经济协调发展提供依据。

It is of great significance to clarify the characteristics of temporal and spatial patterns of grain crops in china.Based on the agricultural data of Hebei province in the past 15 years（2001-2015）, this paper uses the segment linear trend and the production index-output fluctuation coefficient to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of the main grain crops in Hebei Province, and food security in hebei province is evaluated.The results show that the trend of the main grain crop in Hebei Province has experienced two periods from fluctuation to steady growth in the past 15 years, and the trend of change is significant. From the point of view of the change of spatial pattern, the law of the gradual decline from south to north shows that the distribution of different crops is different; From the point of view of food security, the grain fluctuation coefficient of more than70% in Hebei Province exceeded the national average level, the grain fluctuation coefficient was bigger and the food security risk was higher. However, from the perspective of per capital grain production, the safety level is relatively optimistic, food security situation is becoming stable. This study can provide the basis for the optimization of grain and material production in Hebei Province, the structural adjustment and the coordinated development of social economy.