1960～2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal Variability of Temperature Extremes in Tianshan Mountains Area, Northwest China, During 1960-2015

基于中国天山地区35个气象站点1960-2015年逐日最高、最低气温实测资料,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析法,空间分析法等研究了极端气温的时空变化特征,并探讨了气温指数的环流背景因素。结果表明：（1）近56 a来,年平均最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,而日较差呈下降趋势;暖指数和日最低（高）气温极小值均呈上升趋势,而其他冷指数呈减小趋势;从季节变化看,除暖昼、暖夜之外,大部分气温指数的冬季变暖幅度均明显高于夏季。（2）空间分布上,天山山区年平均最低气温和日较差以及大部分冷指数的变暖幅度大于南北坡,而暖指数则表现为南坡大于北坡和山区。（3）高温和低温指数变化幅度表现出明显不对称性变化,年平均最低温的变暖幅度明显大于年平均最高温,冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,夜指数变暖幅度显著大于昼指数。（4）天山地区年平均最高（低）气温和极端气温冷指数受环流指数北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的影响较大,而北太平洋涛动（NPO）、东亚夏季风（EASMI）、南亚夏季风（SASMI）和南海夏季风（SCSMI）是暖指数变化的重要因素。

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data from the 35 stations（1960-2015） in over Tianshan Mountains area（TMA）, using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend analysis as well as correlation analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature and the influence of 8 atmospheric circulation index. The results show that： 1） Nearly 56 years, the annual mean maximum（minimum） temperatures have significantly increased and monthly minimum value of daily minimum（maximum） temperature shows obviously increased, while the occurrence of diurnal temperature range and cold spell duration days, frost days, ice days, cold nights and cold days has decreased. From the seasonal dynamics, excepting warm day and warm night, the warming magnitudes of most temperature indices in winter are obviously higher than those in summer. 2） For the spatial distribution, the warming magnitude of annual mean minimum temperature diurnal temperature range and most indices of cold extremes in Tianshan Mountains are greater than those in northern and southern Tianshan Mountains, while the indices of warm extremes in the southern Tianshan Mountains have a greater magnitude than other areas. 3） The changes of warm and cold temperature indices are asymmetrical, the magnitude of changes in the annual mean minimum temperatures is obviously greater than the annual mean maximum temperatures, the magnitude of changes in cold extremes are obviously greater than that of warm indices. The rangeability of night indices are larger than those of daily indices. 4） AO, NAO and ENSO are the main factors causing the extreme temperature of the annual mean maximum（minimum） temperatures and cold indices in the TMA, while NPO, EASMI, SASMI and SCSMI are the main factors affecting most of the warm indices.