近60年山西省气候变化趋势及其对粮食作物产量的影响

Climate Change in Shanxi Province and Its Impact on Grain Crop Yield in the Past 60 Years

利用山西省近60年的气象数据,采用重标极差方法对该省未来的气候变化趋势进行了预测和分析,并建立了种植业生产函数的线性模型,引入气候要素与非气候要素的交互项分析非气候要素投入如何改变气候要素对粮食作物单产的影响。结果表明:未来日照时数和降水会呈下降趋势,气温会保持上升趋势,而日照时数减少、气温上升和降水减少不利于粮食增产;非气候要素投入会改变气候要素变化对粮食作物生产的影响,随着气温上升、降水减少,增加灌溉、化肥投入对玉米增产意义不大,但可显著提升小麦单产。从人工光照技术开发、推广耐旱作物品种、完善农田灌溉设施等方面给出了提升山西省粮食作物生产适应气候变化能力的建议。

This paper used the meteorological data of Shanxi Province for the past 60 years to forecast and analyze the future climate change trends in Shanxi Province using the method of re-scale extremes,and established a linear model of the crop production function,introduced the interaction of climate and non-climatic elements. This paper analyzed the how non-climate input contributes to change the impact of climatic factors on yields of food crops. The results showed that： Sunshine hours and precipitation would show a downward trend in the future,and the temperature would maintain an upward trend,decreasing the number of sunshine hours,rising temperatures,and reducing precipitation was not conducive to increase grain production. The input of non-climate factors would change the impact of changes in climate factors on the production of food crops. With the increase of temperature and precipitation,increasing the input of irrigation and chemical fertilizers would not significantly increase the yield of maize,but it could significantly increase wheat yield. This paper gave suggestions for improving the ability of food crop production in Shanxi Province to adapt to climate change from the development of artificial lighting technology,the promotion of drought-tolerant crop varieties,and the improvement of farmland irrigation facilities.