三方共赢的特色小镇PPP风险分担机制及稳定性分析

Analysis on Stability of Risk Allocation Mechanism of Characteristic Town PPP Project Based on Tripartite Wins Scheme

合理的风险分担是顺利实施特色小镇PPP项目,优化参与方利益分配的关键。运用随机合作博弈Shapley值方法描述PPP项目中政府、专业公司、纯投资者的合作形式,以风险溢价最小化为原则描述三方共赢的最佳风险分担模型,以体现PPP项目风险分担机制,维持PPP协议长期合作的稳定性。算例分析可见,随机合作博弈Shapley模型能很好地降低总风险溢价、提高整体收益,实现降低项目总风险、优化联盟收益和促进合作稳定的目的。据此提出加强顶层制度设计、增强中介机构的监督与约束、增强联盟合作关系、建立信用惩罚机制等政策建议,以期为优化风险分担和促进三方共赢提供参考。

Reasonable risk allocation was the key to the successful implementation of the characteristics town PPP project and optimal distribution of the participants＇ benefits. Using the stochastic cooperative games shapley value method,this paper described the cooperation form of government,professional company and pure investor in PPP project. Then,with the principle of minimizing risk premium,the optimal risk allocation model based tripartite wins scheme was described to reflect the risk allocation mechanism of PPP project,and maintained the stability of PPP contract in long-term cooperation. Through the example analysis,the stochastic cooperative game shapley model could reduce the total risk premium and increase the overall revenue,and then achieve the goal of reducing project＇ s total risk,optimizing the alliances＇ returns and promote cooperative stability. Finally,based on the results of risk sharing,the policy recommendations,such as enhancing the top-level system design,reinforcing the supervision and restriction of intermediaries,strengthening the alliance cooperation,and establishing a credit punishment mechanism,were proposed to provide reference for optimizing risk sharing and promoting the tripartite win.