“一带一路”沿线国家贸易便利化对中国贸易潜力的影响

Influences of Trade Facilitation by Countries Along “The Belt and Road” on Trade Potentials in China

文章构建了一套能够全面反映"一带一路"沿线国家特色的贸易便利化指标体系,运用主成分分析法测算了沿线65个国家在2012～2016年的贸易便利化水平,并基于扩展的贸易引力模型实证检验了贸易便利化综合水平和各一级指标对沿线国家和各分区域国家的影响程度,同时运用了两种测算方法来估计沿线国家贸易便利化水平提升对中国贸易潜力的影响程度。研究表明,"一带一路"沿线65个国家的贸易便利化水平呈现出时间上和空间上的"双U型"效应,提升贸易便利化水平可以给中国带来巨大的贸易流量,而不同的贸易便利化指标水平的提升会给不同的地区带来不一样的效果。

The paper has constructed a set of indicator system which has entirely reflected the influences of trade facilitation by the countries along " the Belt and Road". The paper has used PCA( principal component analysis) to measure the level of trade facilitation of the 65 countries along in 2012～2016. Based on extended trade gravity model,the paper has testified the integrated level of trade facilitation and the level of influences on the countries along and other subarea countries by the indicators. At the same time,the paper has used two kinds of measuring method to estimate the influences on the promotion of trade facilitation in the countries along on trade potentials in China. The research has shown that the level of trade facilitation in the 65 countries along "the Belt and Road" has shown the double " U" effect on the level of time and space. The promotion of trade facilitation could bring the huge trade flow to China,and the different indicator level of trade facilitation could bring the different effects to different areas.