短期风电功率预测概念和模型与方法

A Review of the Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Theory,Model and Approach

随着并网风电容量的持续增加,风电强随机性给电力系统安全稳定运行带来了挑战,风电功率预测受到广泛的关注。文中较为全面地综述了国内外对风电功率预测的研究现状,着重从风电预测基本理论、风电预测方法和风电预测热点研究问题3个方面展开,主要介绍了确定性风电预测、概率性风电预测、风电爬坡事件预测、大数据和深度学习方法等方面的研究进展。

Power system is facing growing challenges in maintaining a secure and reliable energy supply. Part of the growing challenge is the possibility of signicant levels of uncertain wind generation being installed on power system. Hence the wind power forecasting approaches have drawn to our attention. This paper gives a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art wind power forecasting approaches at home and abroad. The basic theory and approaches of wind power forecast,and hot issues are concerned. This paper mainly introduces the research progress of deterministic wind power forecast,probabilistic wind power forecast,wind power ramp events,big data and deep learning approaches.