交叉航路飞行航空器冲突风险分析方法

本文首先对于同高度层交叉航路构型,建立扇区整体参考坐标系以及两条航路的航路坐标系,两个航路坐标系具有不同原点,且坐标轴指向除垂直轴以外不一致。其次对假设相对位置误差向量的各分量之间是彼此相互独立的随机变量的情况下以及不满足相互独立的假设条件的情况下对冲突风险概率进行建模。再次对两航空器的分别沿航路的纵向标称距离、侧向标称距离、相对标称位置的误差分量的标准差、两航空器水平(纵向、侧向)和垂直方向间隔标准、交叉航路夹角等因素对冲突概率的灵敏度分析。

With the development of civil aviation, the increasing airspace traffic volume makes the air transportation in linfited airspace resources become crowded. This will probably make flight eolffliets become increasingly serious. In order to raise the utilization ratio of airspace and guarantee the security of airspace, collision risk assessment in the process of plan the airspace becomes a veryimportant part. Firstly, this paper establishes a whole the reference coordinate system, two-route coordinating system with different origins and coordinating point to in addition to the vertical axis for crossing route eolffiguration in the same level. Secondly, we establish probability models under the condition of the relative position between the each component error vector is independent of each other and under the condition of random variables can not meet the needs of the assumptions are independent of each other the risk of conflict. Thirdly, make the sensitivityanalysis for the conflict probabilityunder the condition of different nominal distance on the longitudinal along the route of the two aircraft, different lateral nominal distance, relative standard deviation of the nominal position error of the component, two airerafl level （longitudinal, lateral and vertical separation standard, crossing route angle, etc. Conclusion in the end.