2006—2016年江苏省梅毒疫情特征及灰色GM(1,1)模型预测

Epidemic situation of syphilis in Jiangsu province from 2006 to 2016 and GM(1,1)grey model prediction

目的了解江苏省梅毒疫情特征及发展趋势,为制定防治策略提供依据。方法对2006-2016年江苏省梅毒病例及筛查数据进行描述性统计分析,利用发病率资料建立灰色GM(1,1)模型并进行预测。结果 2006-2016年,江苏省共报告梅毒新发病例243 458例,年均报告发病率为28.44/10万,平均增长速度为1.06%,年均死亡率为0.026/100万。男女比为0.99∶1,职业分布以农民(30.86%)、家务及待业(19.44%)为主。2013-2016年梅毒筛查4 785 229人,筛查比例为37.05%,梅毒单阳率为2.23%,双阳率为1.10%,转介比例为14.18%。筛查比例较低的为性病门诊就诊者(36.87%)、性病病人(29.99%),双阳率较高的为戒毒所/劳教所人群(14.38%)、吸毒人群(11.72%),术前筛查者(4.00%)、住院筛查者(4.46%)、性病门诊就诊者(11.43%)等人群转介比例均<12%。利用发病率资料建立灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2017-2020年江苏省梅毒发病率分别为31.56/10万、31.89/10万、32.22/10万、32.56/10万。结论江苏省梅毒发病趋势较为平缓,农民、家务及待业人群为重点监测人群;应加强性病门诊就诊者和性病病人梅毒筛查工作,提高重点人群的转介比例。

Objective To explore the characteristics and trends of syphilis infections among residents in Jiangsu province; to provide basis for making disease control and prevention strategies. Methods The data of syphilis surveillance from 2006 to 2106 in Jiangsu province were collected and analyzed. GM（1,1） grey model was used to predict the incidence rate of syphilis. Results A total of 243 458 syphilis cases were reported in Jiangsu province from 2006 to 2016, resulting the average annual reported incidence of 28.44 per 100,000, with an annual growth rate of 1.06%. The annual reported mortality rate was 0.026/100,000. The average male/female ratio was 0.99 ∶1. Occupation distribution showed concentration of cases in farmers （30.86%）, housework and unemployment （19.44%）. A total of 4 785 229 subjects received free testing for syphilis, accounted for 37.05%. The single positive rate and double positive rate of syphilis among them were 2.23% and 1.10%, respectively;and the referral rate was 14.18%. STD clinic attendants（36.87%） and STD patients（29.99%） had the lowest screening rate for syphilis. The double positive rates of subjects in rehabs/reeducation institutions, drug addicts were relatively higher ,which were 14.38% and 11.72%, respectively. The referral rates of subjects for pre-operation screen, inpatients screen and STD clinics were 4.00%, 4.46% and 11.43% ,respectively, all less than 12%.The incidence rates from 2017 to 2020 were predicted as 31.56/100,000, 31.89/100,000, 32.22/100,000, 32.56/100,000, respectively,based on the established GM（1,1）model . Conclusion The variation of syphilis incidence rate showed relatively mild trend in Jiangsu province. Farmers, housework and unemployment population are high risk population and main monitored groups. Syphilis screening among STD outpatients and STD patients should be strengthened to increase the referral rate of key groups.