互联网技术进步对山东省产业结构转型升级的影响研究

A Study on the Effect of Internet Technology Progress on Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading in Shandong Province

本文以互联网技术进步对二三产业生产率的贡献为研究视角,通过构建互联网技术驱动下的产业结构变迁模型,考察了互联网技术进步对产业结构升级的影响,然后利用2003—2016年山东省17地市的产业面板数据进行实证分析。研究发现:对于"互联网+"新业态在第三产业蓬勃发展的地区,互联网技术进步对第三产业生产率的贡献超过第二产业,能驱动产业结构升级;却不能推动具有工业化经济结构的地区产业结构趋于高度化。然而,前一地区二三产业市场化进程缓慢、消费性服务业发展滞后导致互联网技术对第三产业生产率贡献的抑制及对产业结构升级作用的削弱。此外,产业结构赋有服务化特征与具有服务化倾向的区域相比,互联网创新成果与服务业的融合能极大增强互联网技术进步对前一地区产业结构升级的驱动效应。

This paper takes contribution of Internet technology to productivity of the secondary and tertiary industries as a research perspective, and constructs the model of industrial structure change driven by Internet technology to investigate the effect of Internet technology progress on industrial structure upgrading. Then this paper does an empirical study based on industry panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2016 and finds that for the regions of ＂Internet plus＂ booming in the tertiary industry, Internet technological progress can upgrade industrial structure since Internet technology contributes more to output of the third industry than to the second industry, but it cannot make the industrial structure of regions with structure of industrialized economy more advanced. However, slow marketization and lagging consumer service industry in former areas lead to the suppression of the contribution of Internet technology to productivity of the third industry and weakening of the function of industrial structure upgrading. In addition, regarding the areas of industrial structure with service characteristics, the driving role of Internet technological progress in its industrial structure is greater than that of regions of industrial structure with ＂service-oriented＂ trend.