互联网对物流业全要素生产率影响的门槛效应实证研究

The Influence of Internet on Total Factor Productivity of Logistics Industry——An Empirical Study Based on Threshold Effect

以网民人口比例作为门槛变量,使用门槛面板模型,检验互联网对物流业全要素生产率的门槛效应,研究发现:互联网对物流业全要素生产率存在双重门槛效应。当网民人口比例低于30.5%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率的促进作用不明显;当网民人口比例跨越第一门槛值30.5%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率产生了较为显著的正向影响;当网民人口比例高于第二门槛值41.2%时,互联网对物流业全要素生产率不如第一门槛值时显著。结合中国的实际情况以及研究结论给出了培养掌握互联网技术的物流人才,建设普惠互联网以及加快"互联网+物流"战略等政策建议。

Taking the proportion of the netizen population as the threshold variable, using the threshold panel model, the threshold effect of internet on total factor productivity of logistics industry is tested. It is demonstrated that when the proportion of netizen population is less than 30.5%, the promotion effect of internet on total factor productivity of logistics industry is not obvious. When the proportion of netizen population exceeds the first threshold value of 30.5%, the internet has significant positive impacts on total factor productivity of logistics industry. When the proportion of netizen population exceeds the second threshold value of 41.2%, the total factor productivity of the internet on logistics industry is less significant than that of the first threshold value. Finally, based on the actual situation of China and the research findings of this paper, some suggestions are proposed such as cultivating logistics talents with internet technology, building up inclusive internet and accelerating the implementation of “Internet ＋ logistics” strategy.