考虑风向的风电功率预测不确定性研究

Uncertainty Researchof Wind Power Prediction Considering Wind Direction

针对风电功率的不确定性,提出了一种考虑风向因素的基于Copula理论的风电功率不确定性预测方法,首先将风向因素加入到风速之中构成合成风速序列,再利用条件Copula函数求得某一置信度下的风速区间,再进一步转化功率区间.以东北地区某风电场的实测数据为例进行了算例分析,算例分析证明,所搭建的模型能够给出合理的预测区间,更准确的反映风电场实际运行特征,可为风电场运行及并网提供参考.

Based on Copula theory, wind power factors are added into the wind speed to fore1 the synthetic wind speed sequence. Then, the conditional Copula function is used to obtain the wind power factor. A confidence interval under the wind speed range, and then further conversion power range. An example is given to analyze the actual data of a wind fatal in the northeastem China. A case study proves that the proposed model can give a reasonable prediction interval and more accurately reflect the actual operation characteristics of the wind fatal. Operation and provide reference.