基于ARIMA模型的我国大菱鲆价格预警研究

Study on the early-warning of turbot price in china based on ARIMA model

本研究建立了我国大菱鲆价格预警体系框架,分析了我国大菱鲆生产价格预警体系的组成。采用大菱鲆价格为预警指标,构建大菱鲆价格预警指标体系和黑色预警模型,以大菱鲆价格为警情指标,利用成本—收益原则确立警限。基于近几年的实地调研数据分别对大菱鲆月出池价格和日出池价格进行组内回代预测,结果显示预测值与实际值基本一致,验证了ARIMA模型的我国大菱鲆价格预警具有可行性和有效性。最后向个体养殖户、工业化养殖、消费者与渔业生产部门提出了建议。

According to this study, we set up the framework of the early warning system of turbot in China, and analyzed the composition of the production price warning system.Using turbot price as early warning index, the early warning index system and the black warning model of turbot was constructed. The results showed that the prediction value is consistent with the actual value, to validate the ARIMA model of China turbot prices early warning is feasible and effective. At last, some suggestions are put forward to the individual farmers, the industrialized breeding, the consumers and the fishery production departments.