基于宏观审慎视角的房地产风险预警研究

A Risk Early Warning Model for Real Estate Risk from the Macroprudential Perspective

各国经济和金融发展的经验教训表明,伴随着房价的上涨,居民债务往住会快速增加。本文通过回顾分析美国、日本等国家发生房地产泡沫风险时主要房地产金融指标的变动情况,重点从居民负债能力视角,分析房价变动、房地产贷款增速变化、居民债务收入和居民债务率的变化对房地产金融体系稳定性的影响,并构建了宏观审慎视角下的房地产风险预警模型。在此基础上,本文对美国和我国房地产市场的风险进行实证分析,提出了防范我国房地产市场风险的对策建议。模型测算结果表明,本文构建的房地产预警模型与不同时期美国房地产泡沫程度及金融稳定性的表现基本一致,能够前瞻准确地反映房地产市场风险状况,可以作为判断房地产金融风险的重要指标体系并加以运用推广。未来,还需要加大对居民负债状况和负债行为的统计及监测,为房地产风险预警指数有效运行奠定坚实基础。

The experiences and lessons of economic and financial development in various countries show that rising housing prices is accompanied by a rapid increase in household debt. By reviewing and analyzing the changes of major financial indicators of real estate in the United States and Japan when their housing bubble spilling risks, and mainly from the perspective of residents＇ debt capacity, this paper analyzes the impact of changes in housing prices, real estate loan growth, household debt income and household debt ratio on the stability of the financial system, and constructs a risk early warning model for real estate risk from the macroprudential perspective. Then this paper applies this model and empirically analyzes the risks of the housing market in the United States and China, and proposes measures to prevent the risks of the housing market in China. The results show that the real estate early warning index constructed in this paper is basically consistent with the performance of the US real estate bubble and financial stability in different periods, which can prospectively and accurately refiect the risk status of the real estate market and therefore could be used as an important indicator for judging real estate financial risks. To lay a solid foundation for the effective operation of the real estate financial early warning index, it’s necessary to improve the statistics and monitoring of the debt status and liabilities of residents in the future.