流动人口城市居留意愿的影响因素分析——基于居留时限的视角

Influencing factors on the urban residence intention of floating population——Based on the perspective of residence time

基于2017年四川流动人口动态监测数据,从时限维度将流动人口的居留意愿分为即时居留意愿和长期居留意愿,并从收入因素、福利因素、心理因素和农村资产等方面对流动人口即时居留意愿和长期居留意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。结果显示:整体而言,收入和福利的改善是流动人口城市居留的动力因素,心理成本和农村资产的增加则是流动人口城市居留的阻力因素;流动人口的即时居留意愿和长期居留意愿受相对不同的因素驱动,其中,与当前成本收益相关的因素多对流动人口的即时居留意愿产生影响,而与预期成本收益相关的因素则更可能影响流动人口的长期居留意愿。基于此,就流动人口长期居留意愿的提高,从就业、住房、城市融入和宅基地等方面提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the dynamic monitoring data of the floating population in Sichuan in 2017, this study divided the migrant＇s residence intention into instant residence intention and long-term residence intention, and the income factors, welfare factors, psychological factors, and rural asset status were used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of migrants＇ instant residence and long-term residence intentions. The results show that, as a whole, the improvement of income and welfare is the motivating factors for the migrants＇ desire to stay. The increase in psychological costs and rural assets is the drag factors for the migrants＇ desire to stay. The instant residence intention and long-term residence intention of the floating population are driven by relatively different factors. Among them, the factors related to the current cost-benefit have an impact on the instant residence intention of the floating population, while the factors related to the expected cost-benefit are more likely to affect the long-term residence intention of the floating population. Focusing on the improvement of long-term residents＇ desire to stay in floating cities, we have put forward corresponding policy recommendations in terms of employment, housing, urban integration and homestead.