基于GLP模型的城市土地利用结构优化决策——以呼和浩特市为例

Optimization of Urban Land Use Structure Based on GLP Model——A Case Study of Hohhot

以呼和浩特市市区为研究区域,利用2009—2015年研究区域土地利用变更数据和相关社会经济统计年鉴数据,以影响城市土地利用结构优化的主要因子为优化决策要素,分别运用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测法和灰色线性规划法(Grey linear programming,GLP)进行各因子预测值区间和相关影响因子约束方程不等式的估算、构建,并分别根据预测区间的上下限值,设计出两个关于2020年研究区域土地利用结构优化配置方案并进行对比和择优。结果表明,以区间下限值为准的优化方案相比,取上限值的优化方案在整体用地产出效益和单一类型用地的规模组合等方面均要优于取下限值的土地利用结构优化方案以及现状土地利用结构。

Taking the municipal districts of Hohhot city as the study area, combined with the land use change data and social economic statistical data about the study area from 2009 to 2015, took some nlain factors for influence the structure optimization of city land use as the factors of optimal decision, respectively using GM（1,1） and GLP to estimate and construct the intervals of predictive value of the factors and inequality constraint equations, and respectively according to the interval prediction value of the limit to design two configuration optimization schemes of land use of the study area in 2020 and compared and optimized for it. The results show that compared to the optimization scheme of the interval of lower value, optimization scheme of the upper limit value in the efficiency of the whole land output and single type of land scale and combi-nation was better than the optimization scheme of lower limit and emTent structure of land use structure.