从普莱西德湖到平昌:第13～23届冬奥会竞争格局变化分析

From Lake Placid to Pyeongchang: the Change Analysis of the Competition Situation in the 13^(th)～23^(th) Winter Olympic Games

采用文献资料、数理统计、对比分析的方法,对中国参加冬奥会以来第13～23届冬奥会的国际竞争格局进行分析。结果显示:冬奥会奖牌和金牌分布中,强国所占比重呈现下降趋势;区域竞争实力表现为欧洲强势依旧、北美洲保持平稳、亚洲逐渐上升、大洋洲和非洲起色不佳;项目设置形成冰上项目与雪上项目"三七分布"态势,且不同项目有相对稳定的国家和地区参与奖牌竞争;冬奥会有明显的"东道主"效应存在,受主客观条件的影响,主办国竞技实力会显著提高。建议全面把握冬奥会致胜规律和变化趋势,为确保中国2022冬奥会排名,须"使强项更强、恶补短板",在此基础上,借助2022冬奥会的历史机遇,实现全面参赛;利用"东道主"效应,发挥主场优势,确保优势项目和潜优势项目奖牌胜券在握;尽早谋划新增项目,力争赢得更多奖牌。

Through the methods of literature review, mathematieal statistics and comparative methods, this paper analyzes the competitive structure, the feature change from the 13th to 23th Winter Olympic Games. Results show that the proportion of the great power in the Olympic medal distribution gradually decreases. Regional competitive change is shown to be strong in Europe, stable in North America, rising in Asia, and poor in Oceania and Africa. The change of the program forms a stable situation of the distribution of winter sport, and different winter programs have relative stable national regions to participate in medal competition. The winter Olympics also have an obvious ＂host＂ effect, the host eountry＇s competitive power will increase significantly. Texts suggested that China should recognize the situation and strive for full participation in 2022. According to the law of national advantages to ensure the ranking, ＂make the strength stronger, catch up with short board＂, use the ＂host＂ effect and make full use of national system, and plan new programs to win more medals.