高技术产业创新绩效的累积效应——基于阶段性和滞后期的实证分析

The Cumulative Effect of High Technology Industry's Innovation Performance in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Phases and Lags

从创新过程视角将高技术产业创新过程分为科技成果形成、商业价值形成和规模经济效益形成三个阶段,测算从创新投入到创新产出的滞后期和创新投入的累积比率,在此基础上研究其创新绩效的累积效应。实证研究发现,中国高技术产业创新投入的累积比率呈倒U型变动趋势,在滞后期前逐渐上升,在滞后期后逐渐下降,并在滞后期处达到最优值66.47%;其创新绩效的累积效应随创新阶段的变动呈倒U型变化趋势,在商业价值形成阶段的滞后和累积效应均强于科技成果形成阶段,规模经济效益形成阶段不存在滞后和累积效应。因此,应进一步加大科技成果和商业价值形成阶段的创新资本投入,通过累积效应培育高技术产业创新能力从而提升其创新绩效;在评价高技术产业创新效率时应区分不同创新阶段、不同变量的滞后期以及相应的累积效应,优化现有评价标准。

From the perspective of innovation process, the innovation process of China＇s HTI can be divided into three stages, including the formation of scientific and technological achievements, the formation of commercial value, the formation of economic benefits. By finding the lag year and cumulative ratio, we study the cumulative effect of innovation performance of China＇s high-tech industry. The empirical study finds that the cumulative ratio of HTI＇s innovation input appears as inverted U-shaped curve, increases before the lag year, decreases after the lag year, and reaches an maximum value of 66. 47% at the lag year. And the lagged effects of HTI＇s innovation performance appears as inverted U-shaped pattern over innovation phase. Both the lagged effect and cumulative effect of HIT＇s innovation performance in China during the formation of commercial value are stronger than that of the formation of scientific and technological a-chievements, and there is no lagged effect or cumulative effect during the formation of economic benefits. Therefore, the investment of innovation capital should be further increased during the formation of scientific and technological achievements and commercial value, and the innovation capability of high-tech industries should be nurtured by cumulative effects to enhance their innovation performance. Further, in order to optimizing the existing evaluation criteria, we should distinguish different phases of innovation, dif-ferent lag of variables and the corresponding cumulative effects when evaluating the innovation efficiency of HTI.