青海电力需求的影响因素和指标分析

Influencing Factors and Indicators of Electricity Consumption in Qinghai

电力需求预测是电力系统规划的一项基本内容,采用近15a来青海的国民经济和社会统计数据,对青海电力需求增长与经济因素、产业结构、人口因素、城镇化率、销售电价等因素进行了相关性分析,进而分析了青海电力弹性系数、综合电耗、人均生活用电、产业产值单耗、负荷利用小时数等指标的发展趋势。采用逐年青海电网8 760h的负荷数据,对青海负荷年特性、季特性和日特性进行了总结,分析了其特点和形成的原因。研究成果可为青海中长期电力需求预测、负荷特性分析、电力系统规划设计、电源开发提供分析基础。

Electricity load forecasting is a basic content of power system planning.This paper adopts the data of the national economy and social statistics of Qinghai power grid for nearly 10 years to analyze the relationship between economic factors,industrial structure,population,urbanization rate,the growth of power demand in Qinghai and its electricity load increase;and then analyzes the development trend of electricity elastic coefficient,comprehensive energy consumption coefficient,per person living electricity consumption,industry output value per unit consumption,load utilization hours and other indicators.With the yearly 8760 hour load data of Qinghai power grid,the annual characteristic,seasonal characteristic and daily characteristic of the power load in Qinghai are summarized,and the characteristics and causes of the formation are analyzed.The research results provides an analytical basis for the medium-long term load forecasting,load characteristic analysis,the planning and design of power system and the development of power supply of Qinghai power grid.