破解“新农保”象征性缴费陷阱——基于“大饥荒”经历的经验证据

Breaking the Speculative Contribution Gambling of the China Rural Pension System's Participants:Based the Empirical Experiences from the Great Famine

基于CFPS2012年数据,将"大饥荒"经历作为认知因素中创伤性记忆的典型事件,检验其对"新农保"象征性缴费行为的解释力。研究发现"大饥荒"经历能显著提高参保人选择较高缴费档次的概率;这种影响还对不同年龄段人群产生了程度不同的队列效应,对幼儿组观测值的效应显著为正,并且效应大于婴儿组与童年组。饥荒持续时间也能显著正向影响选择较高缴费档次的概率,但缴费档次的选择会随着饥荒严重程度的加剧而降低。"大饥荒"经历产生正向促进作用可归因于童年遭遇的饥荒经历能长期深刻影响农户的风险态度,进而影响其参保缴费档次的选择。鉴于此,改变农户的风险态度及政策认知应是"新农保"摆脱最低缴费痼疾的突破方向。

Based on the data of CFPS2012, using the experience of ＂big famine＂ as the representative event of traumatic memory and test its effect on the Speculative Contribution of the Participants in Rural Pension System. The results indicate that the experience can significantly promote the contribution levels of the participants. This effect demonstrated different age effect on different age cohorts while it is positive for the infants cohort with much more important effect. Meanwhile, the duration time also could affect the possibility of choosing higher contribution levels. All these effect could contributed to the Big Famine experience can affect the participants＇ risk attitude for a long time and further affect the choose of contribution level. Based on these empirical experiences, the rural pension policy should revise the participants＇ risk attitude and congnition for this system, which would be an effective tactic to breaking the lowest contribution trap.