分析师预测、投资机会与投资强度

Analyst Forecast, Investment Opportunity and Investment Intensity

以2008-2016年沪深A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了分析师盈余预测质量对企业投资强度的影响,并考察了投资机会在盈余预测质量与投资强度之间的作用机制。结果表明,分析师盈余预测质量(预测准确度和预测一致性)有助于提升企业投资强度,投资机会在盈余预测质量影响投资强度的过程中存在部分中介效应;分析师预测对企业投资强度的影响在不同信息环境与代理问题下存在显著差异,对于信息不对称程度高、代理成本高的企业,分析师盈余预测质量对投资强度的影响更大;进一步研究表明,分析师盈余预测质量内部存在相互强化关系,预测一致性能够加强预测准确度对投资强度的影响,分析师意见越一致,准确的分析师预测意见越易被企业或投资者采纳。

This paper empirically tests the impact of analysts＇ earnings forecast quality on firm investment intensity in a sample of listed companies in China during the period 2008-2016, and examines the mediating mechanism of investment opportunity. The results show that analysts＇ earnings forecast quality（both forecast accuracy and forecast consistency） can improve corporate investment intensity. Investment opportunity has partial mediating effect in the process of earnings forecast quality affecting the investment intensity. The impact of analysts＇ forecasts on investment intensity is different under different information environment and agency problems. For enterprises with high information asymmetry and high agency costs, the quality of analysts＇ earnings forecasts has a greater impact on investment intensity. Further studies indicate that analysts＇ earnings forecast quality has inter strengthening relationship, which forecast consistency can enhance the impact of forecast accuracy on investment intensity. The more consistent analysts＇ opinions are, the more accurate analysts＇ forecasts are likely to be adopted by firms or investors.