政府补助支出福利政策的脱贫效应

The Effect of Government Subsidy and Welfare Policy on Poverty Elimination

选取中国家庭跟踪调查数据并利用门限回归模型,根据政府补助标准刻画政府补助福利政策与脱贫效果之间的影响效应,结果表明:政府补助福利政策与脱贫效果之间存在明显的非线性特征,仅当政府补助标准达到一定水平时政府补助才有助于居民脱贫。通过门限回归实证分析发现:过高的政府补助标准使贫困居民陷入福利依赖,脱贫效果不显著;过低的政府补助标准会削弱福利政策脱贫效果,甚至增加城乡居民返贫风险。由此可知,我国政府补助福利政策对于城乡居民脱贫效果影响已不再具备明显的整体效应,因此,优化政府补助标准与模式成为未来实现全面脱贫的重要手段。

This paper chooses the CFPS data with the threshold regression model to describe the relationship between the government subsidy policy and the poverty alleviation effect according to the government subsidy standard. The results show that there are obvious nonlinear characteristics existed between the government subsidy policy and the poverty alleviation. Through the threshold regression, it is found that the poverty alleviation effect is not significant if the government subsidy standards is too high,which could lead to welfare traps. While it could reduce the effectiveness of policy out of poverty if the government subsidies is too low and even increases the risk of urban and rural residents back to poverty. It could be seen that the effect of government subsidy and welfare policy on urban and rural residents have no obvious overall effect on the poverty alleviation. Therefore, it is important to optimize the standard and mode of government subsidy.