政策不确定性抑制了企业创新?——基于地方官员变更视角的实证分析

Does Policy Uncertainty Inhibit Corporate Innovation?——An Empirical Analysis Based on Local Officials Turnover

官员变更引发政策不确定性,影响企业创新水平。利用2000—2013年中国工业企业数据,运用面板Tobit模型和面板Logit模型进行考察分析,研究发现:(1)官员变更显著降低了企业创新水平;(2)新任官员是异地调任时,这种抑制作用更强;(3)新任官员与省"一把手"同乡或前任官员升迁时,这种负向影响越小。进一步研究表明,在市场化程度越高的地区、市场竞争度越高的行业、融资约束越小的企业以及在国有企业中,官员变更对企业创新的抑制作用受到弱化;官员变更对企业创新的负向影响在管制性行业内得到强化。

Officials turnover leads to policy uncertainties,which affect corporate innovation. Using data from industrial enterprises in China from 2000 to 2013,this study adopts the method of panel Logit and panel Tobit. The findings are： 1） Officials turnover significantly decreases the level of corporate innovation; 2） The inhibitory effect is stronger when new officials are transferred from remote places; 3） The inhibitory effect is weakened when new officials and the province leaders are fellow countrymen,or when former officials are promoted. Further studies show that： The negative effect of officials turnover on corporate innovation is weakened in regions with higher degrees of marketization,in industries with more intense competition,in enterprises with fewer financial constraints and in stateowned enterprises; The negative impact of officials turnover is strengthened in the regulatory sector.