上海罗氏沼虾价格短期预测及研究展望

Short Prediction and Research Prospect on Macrobrachium Rosenbergii Price in Shanghai

为指导农户合理调整生产、规避市场风险、保证消费者"菜篮子"供应,水产品市场价格监测及预测受到极大关注。利用2010—2017年上海罗氏沼虾批发市场价格为原始数据,对上海罗氏沼虾的市场价格进行建模和预测,时间序列数据分解结果显示,上海罗氏沼虾批发市场价格相对比较稳定,周期性变化明显,较为稳定的趋势变化和周期变化说明了罗氏沼虾养殖技术比较成熟,消费者偏好较稳定。预测结果显示, Holt-winters乘法模型较加法模型预测更为准确;未来价格呈现周期性波动上升趋势,趋势变化向上倾斜;年内市场价格具有明显的季节性特征,这与罗氏沼虾春季投苗、秋季收获的生产方式一致。未来需继续对罗氏沼虾总交易量进行监测,沿着生产者—批发市场—批发商—零售商—消费者整个水产品价值链进行价格变动研究,并系统分析价值链增值及价值链传递过程中的利益分配问题。

In order to guide farmers to rationally adjust production, avoid market risks and ensure the staple food supply of consumer, market price monitoring and forecasting of aquatic products has received great attention. Taking the wholesale market price of Macrobrachium rosenbergii in Shanghai from 2010 to 2017 as the original data, the authors modelled and predicted the market price of Macrobrachium rosenbergii in Shanghai. The results of the time series decomposition showed that the wholesale market price of Macrobrachium rosenbergii in Shanghai was relatively stable with periodic changes, and a more stable trend and cyclical changes indicated that its cultivation techniques was relatively mature and the consumer preferences were less variable. The prediction results showed that the Holt-winters multiplication model was more accurate than the additive model; the price in the future would show a trend of cyclical fluctuation and upward inclination; the market price would have obvious seasonal characteristics in 2018, which was similar to the Macrobrachium rosenbergii production mode of spring seedling and autumn harvest. In the future, we should continue to monitor the total trading volume of Macrobrachium rosenbergii and carry out the price changes along the whole value chain of producer-wholesale maxket-wholesaler-retailer-consumer, and systematically analyze the problem of value chain increment and benefit distribution in the course of value chain transmission.