数值模式预报系统对巴彦淖尔市地区基本要素预报效果检验

The Examine Of Numerical Model Prediction System On The Forecasting Of Basic Elements Effect In Bayannaoer

本文利用2014年3月1日至11月30日的巴彦淖尔市地面观测资料和T639数值模式、 欧洲中心细网格 （ECTHIN） 数值模式、 巴彦淖尔市气象台 （本台） 预报、 中央指导预报、 德国天气在线预报和Mofes预报等资料检验分析未来5d预报效果, 结果表明： 最高气温预报, 对于5d来说, 巴彦淖尔市气象台和ECTHIN模式预报比较稳定可靠; 最低气温预报, 对于5天来说, 巴彦淖尔市气象台和中央指导预报比较稳定可靠.降雨预报,对于5天来说, 巴彦淖尔市气象台预报和德国天气在线预报比较稳定可靠.

In this paper, the results of the forecast in the next five days were examined and analyzed by using the ground observation data and the T639 numerical model, the ECTHIN numerical model, the forecast of the Bayannur Meteorological Observatory（our station）, the central guidance forecast, the German weather on-line forecast and the Moves forecast from March 1 to November 30, 2014. The results showed that the maximum temperature forecast was stable and reliable for 5 days, and the minimum temperature forecast was stable and reliable for 5 days. Rainfall forecast, for five days, Bayannur Meteorological Observatory forecast and German weather online forecast was more stable and reliable.