“天气在线”产品对玉树州南部3县汛期气温预报的检验分析

Testing and Analysis of T7 Online on Temperature Forecast during Flood Season in Three Counties in South Yushu Prefecture

采用2017年汛期(5—10月)德国天气在线24 h数值预报产品及玉树州玉树市、囊谦县、杂多县逐日温度资料,检验德国天气在线数值预报产品对玉树州南部3县汛期气温预报的能力。结果表明,该预报产品对玉树州南部3县汛期最低气温预报效果比最高气温好,其中对玉树市和杂多县预报能力比囊谦县好;而且对最低气温预报除玉树市略偏高外,杂多县和囊谦县均偏低,而对最高气温预报均有明显偏低倾向。其中对囊谦县最低、最高气温预报偏低率最突出且差值最大。

Using T7 online 24 hours numerical forecast production during the flood season and daily temperature data of Yushu City, Nangqian County and Zaduo County of Yushu Prefecture in 2017, the ability of T7 online numerical forecast product to forecast temperature during flood season in three counties in south Yushu Prefecture was tested. The results showed that T7 online had better forecast effect on minimum temperature than maximum temperature in the flood season, and the forecast ability of Yushu City and Zaduo County was better than that of Nangqian County. The forecasting minimum temperature was slightly higher in Yushu City, and the forecasting mini- mum temperatures were lower in Zaduo County and Nangqian County, while the forecasting maximum temperatures were obviously lower in three counties in south Yushu Prefecture. The forecasting minimum and maximum temperatures were obviously lower in Nangqian County.