每日温度与手足口病发病关系研究

Relationship between daily temperature and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease

目的了解每日温度对手足口病发病的影响,为区域性HFMD防控预警预测及制定适应策略提供科学依据。方法搜集泰安市2009年1月1日到2014年12月31日每日手足口病发病资料和同期气象数据,建立手足口病发病数与气象变量的时间序列,利用分布滞后非线性模型研究日平均温度与手足口病的发病关系。结果泰安市2009年1月1日至2014年12月31日手足口病共发病49 368例,其中男性30 118例,占60.98%;女性19 268例,占39.02%。发病年龄以1~3岁最多,31 806例,占64.40%。2009~2014年日平均温度、日最低温度、日最高温度、露点温度的P50分别为16.11、9.00、21.61、9.06℃,2009~2013年的API为29~455,2014年AQI为49~423。泰安市手足口病的发病呈现一定的季节趋势,夏秋季是该病的高发期,冷效应温度每升高1℃,HFMD发病人数增加-1.22%,热效应温度每降低1℃,HFMD发病人数增加-0.82%,温度是手足口病发病的危险因素。结论高温和寒冷均可影响手足口病的发病,都存在滞后效应和收获效应。

Objective To understand the influence of daily temperature on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease,so as to provide scientific basis for regional HFMD prevention and control prediction and formulation of adaptation strategies. Methods Daily incidence data on hand,foot and mouth disease and meteorological data from January 1,2009 to December 31,2014 were collected in Tai＇an city,to establish time series of hand,foot and mouth disease incidence and meteorological variables,and study the relationship between average daily temperature and the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease by using the distribution lag nonlinear model. Results There were 49 368 cases of hand,foot and mouth disease in Tai＇an city from January 1,2009 to December 31,2014.including 30 118 males,accounting for 60.98%,and19 268 females,accounting for 39.02%.The age of onset was the highest in 1 to 3 years old,with a total of 31 806 cases,accounting for 64.40%.The P50 of the daily average temperature,the daily minimum temperature,the daily maximum temperature,and the dew point temperature from 2009 to 2014 were 16.11,9.00,21.61,and 9.06 ℃,respectively.The API for 2009 to 2013 was 29 to 455,and the AQI for 2014 was 49 to 423.The incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Tai＇an city had a certain seasonal trend.The summer and autumn were the peaks of the disease.For every 1 ℃increase in cold effect temperature,the number of HFMD cases increased by-1.22%.For every 1℃ decrease in the heat effect temperature,the incidence of HFMD increased by-0.82%,temperature was a risk factor for the onset of hand,foot and mouth disease. Conclusion Both high temperature and cold can affect the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease,and there are hysteresis effects and harvest effects.