城市适度人口测度的辨析与体系重构

The Analysis of The Appropriate Population Measurement of The City and The Reconstruction of The System

将城市适度人口测度定位为探索影响适度人口因素和规律的测度,最终服务于如何提升城市适度人口上限而进行的外生因素调控。在此基础上,借鉴国内外适度人口理论并结合中国城市化实践,首先塑造城市适度人口测度的社会净收益动态最优理念;其次通过分析已有适度人口测度方法,提出构建测度城市适度人口的多目标短板模型;在理念和模型指导下,围绕因素选择、城市分类、测度步骤和模型、城市适度人口判断四个方面,重构中国城市化进程中城市适度人口测度体系。最后,以2010年和2013年中国地级及以上城市为样本对城市适度人口进行实证测度,得到特定目标条件下的城市适度人口分布,以及提升城市适度人口上限面临的短板,并为中国城市人口规划和提升适度人口上限提供借鉴。

Targeting moderate urban populations as a measure of the factors and laws affecting moderate populations will ultimately serve the exogenous regulation of how to increase the upper limit of the urban population. On this basis, by drawing on the appropriate population theory both at home and abroad and combining with the practice of urbanization in China, the concept of dynamic optimal social net income of urban moderate demographics is firstly modeled ; secondly, by measuring the existing appropriate demographic measures, it proposes constructing a moderate urban population The multi-objective short board model, under the guidance of the concept and model, reconstructs the appropriate urban population measurement system in the process of urbanization in China in four aspects ： factor selection, urban classification, measurement procedures and models, and moderate urban population judgment. Finally, using the cities of prefecture level and above in China in 2010 and 2013 as a sample to empirically measure the urban moderate population, we get the appropriate urban population distribution under specific target conditions and the shortcomings of increasing the city＇ s moderate population ceiling. This article will provide a reference for China＇s urban population planning and the promotion of a moderate population ceiling.