人口红利、结构红利与区域经济增长差异

Demographic Dividend,Structural Bonus and Regional Economic Growth

通过利用2000~2016年中国30个省份面板数据,从人均产出出发,以新古典内生经济增长理论为基础构建模型,采用系统的GMM方法实证人口红利、结构红利对中国区域经济增长的影响差异。实证结果显示:从直接效应来看,人口红利、结构红利直接促进中国省域经济增长且人口红利效应更大;在区域内部,上升的老年抚养负担会侵蚀少儿抚养负担下降带来的人口红利效应表现为对中部和西部地区显著,东部地区不显著;而结构红利对经济增长的促进作用表现为东、中、西依次递减趋势。从间接效应来看,少儿抚养比下降、老年抚养比上升、农业就业结构转移均对通过人力资本投资增加对经济増长形成显著的正效应。少儿抚养比下降可以促进人力资本投入增加对区域经济增长影响是东部>中部>西部;老年抚养比上升可以通过促进人力资本投入增加对经济增长影响是东部>西部>中部;农业就业结构转移会通过人力资本投资增加对经济增长影响是中部>西部>东部。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China in the past 2000- 2016years, based on the per capita output and the neo classical endogenous growth theory, we constructed a model based on the neoclassical endogenous growth theory, and applied the GMM method to analyze the impact of demographic dividend and structural bonus on China＇ s Provincial Economic growth. The empirical results show that the direct effect from the point of view, the demographic dividend, dividend Chinese structure directly promote the provincial economic growth and demographic dividend effect more;within the region, the rise of the elderly dependency burden will erode the demographic dividend to bring down the burden of children showed significantly to the eastern and central regions, the western region is not significant ; and structure the bonus to promote economic growth in the East, in the west, decreasing trend. From the indirect effect, child dependency ratio decreased, the elderly dependency ratio rising of human capital investment through increased formation of significant positive effect on economic growth. The child dependency ratio decline can promote human capital investment to increase the impact on regional economic growth is the East 〉 middle 〉 West; elderly dependency ratio can rise through the promotion of human capital investment to increase the impact on the economic growth is the East 〉 Western 〉 middle ; agricultural employment structure transfer through human capital investment to increase the impact on economic growth is the middle 〉 west 〉 east.