网络攻击对贸易的影响——基于网络安全公司数据的研究

Impact of Cyber Attacks on Trade:Research Based on Network Security Company Data

本文利用互联网安全公司公布的网络攻击数据和双边贸易数据,使用拓展的引力模型,首次探究了网络攻击对双边贸易的影响。实证结果表明,无论是出口国还是进口国受到的网络攻击都对贸易具有阻碍作用。在分产品类别的研究中发现,网络攻击对资本品、中间产品的影响不显著,但是对消费品贸易有显著的阻碍作用;对出口国的网络攻击会使异质产品贸易受到显著的负面影响,对进口国的网络攻击对同质产品有显著负面影响。本文是目前第一篇研究网络攻击对贸易影响的文章,丰富了互联网对贸易的影响方面的研究内容,同时也为我国"互联网+贸易"战略的实施提供了有益的启示。

This article uses the cyber attack data collected from an Intemet Security Corporation and the bilateral trade data, with an extended gravitational model, explores the impact of cyber attacks on bilateral trade for the first time. The empirical results show that： cyber attacks have an impediment to trade on both the importing countries and the exporting countries. Further research in the sub-category shows that cyberattacks have no significant effect on capital goods and intermediate products, but they have a significant impediment to consumer goods; and cyber attacks on exporting countries have a significant negative impact on heterogeneous products, and cyber attacks on importing countries have a significant negative effect on the import of homogenous products. This article is the first one to study the impact of cyber attacks on trade, it enriches the research content of the Intemet＇s impact on trade, and also provides useful inspiration for the implementation of the ＂Intemet ＋ trade＂ strategy.