三种情景下煤化工产业碳排放量及强度分析

Analysis on carbon emissions and intensity of coal chemical industry under three scenarios

为了研究煤化工产业碳排放量和排放强度,参考国内外研究中普遍采用的碳排放核算方法,选用实测排放因子,计算分析了2005—2015年煤化工行业的CO_2排放量。运用情景分析法,以产品为视角,设置3种发展情景,预测了2020年煤化工行业的碳排放量及排放强度。结果表明:2005—2015年,煤化工CO_2排放量年均增长8.12%;情景一、二、三下,CO_2排放量及碳排放强度依次增加;到2020年,情景一的减排潜力为正,情景二、三的潜力均为负。说明单纯调整产品结构对提高煤化工行业的减排潜力非常有限。还需要综合运用多种减排措施如提高能源效率、加大清洁技术比例、配套去碳化技术等来提高行业减排潜力。

In order to study the carbon emissions and emission intensity of coal chemical industry,in this work,CO2emissions is accounted based on the commonly used methods and the measured emission factor of coal chemical industry in2005—2015 is calculated and analyzed.Then,three development scenarios are set up using scenarios analysis method,the carbon emissions and intensity in 2020 is predicted by adjusting the product structure.The results show that the CO2emissions of coal chemical industry increased by 8.12%during 2005—2015.With first,second,third scenario,CO2emissions and intensity increase one by one;only in the first scenario reduction potential is positive,others are all negative in 2020.The research indicates that if only the product structure was adjusted,the potential of coal chemical industry could not be improved.So,we need to combine various mitigation measures,such as improving energy efficiency,increasing the ratio of clean technology and match carbonization technology to enhance emission reduction potential.