煤炭资源税政策对煤炭企业及社会经济影响研究

Impact analysis of coal resource tax policy on coal sector and social economy

2014年,国家对煤炭资源税进行了由从量计税到从价计税的改革,因此对于资源税从量计征到从价计征对煤炭企业及宏观经济有何影响等问题需要开展定量研究。文章利用递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,模拟不同税率情景下社会经济受到的影响。结果表明:从宏观经济整体来看,煤炭资源税从价征收会对GDP产生负面影响,而且这种负面影响随着税率增加而以更快速度加强。从各部门的模拟结果来看,无论是产量还是利润,煤炭采选业本身都是损失最大的部门,尤其是高税率情景下对煤炭冲击非常剧烈。因此,煤炭资源税从价计征后不宜一次性设置过高税率,需同时采取配套措施来保护煤炭行业及高耗煤行业的经营。

In 2014,China＇s government carried out coal resource tax reform from quantity-based tax to ad valorem tax.Therefore,it is necessary to quantify the impact of resource tax on coal sector and national economy. In this paper,a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model is applied to simulate the social and economic impacts of different tax rates. The results show that from the perspective of national economy,the ad valorem coal resource tax will impose negative effect on GDP,and its magnitude will be strengthened with a higher tax rate. From sectoral level,the results show that the coal mining sector is mostly affected among various sectors,in terms of both output and profit. Especially in the high-tax rate scenario,the impact on coal sector is extremely significant. Therefore,it is not appropriate to set a high tax rate as soon as implementing coal resource tax,and proper measures aiming at protecting coal sector and sectors with high coal consumption should also be implemented.