中美贸易战的背景、原因、本质及中国对策

The Background, Causes, Essence and Countermeasures of Sino-US Trade War

美国以巨大的货物贸易逆差为借口挑起中美双边贸易摩擦,并以此为由在贸易和投资等领域出台系列措施压制中国,中国随即反制,中美贸易摩擦升级为贸易战。美中货物贸易逆差真的是中美贸易战的现实起因吗?事实证明,巨大的货物贸易差额并非中美贸易战的起因,一方面,美中货物贸易逆差产生的原因主要是美国对华的高技术产品出口控制,并非是中国"奖出限入"的经贸政策;另一方面,由于原产地原则和其它统计方法上的重大缺陷造成了美中货物贸易逆差虚高,它并不能真实反映中美两国之间的贸易竞争力和贸易收支。纵观20世纪以来世界主要国家贸易战的历史大背景,这次中美贸易战的本质是作为老牌守成帝国的美国与迅速发展的社会主义中国之间的全球战略竞争在经贸领域的反映,其具有结构性、复杂性和长期性,并非是减少美中货物贸易逆差所能解决的。为此,我们必须科学分析中美贸易战的本质,保持中国全面深化改革开放既有战略的定力,沉着应对中美贸易战可能带来的各种风险。

The United States used the huge goods trade deficit between the United States and China as an excuse to provoke Sino-US trade frictions, and used this as an excuse to sanction China in the areas of investment, trade, etc. Sino-US trade war has become increasingly fierce. Is the huge trade deficit in goods the really cause of the trade war between China and the United States？ This paper argues that the huge trade deficit in goods is not the fundamental cause of Sino-US trade war. On the one hand, the huge trade deficit between the United States and China is mainly due to the advanced technology product export restriction policy of the United States to China, not the export incentive and import restrictions of China. On the other hand, due to the major defects in the statistical caliber of the principle of origin and other statistical methods, the goods trade deficit between the United States and China is inflated, which cannot truly reflect the trade competitiveness and trade interests between China and the United States. Based on the historical background of Sino-US trade frictions,this paper holds that the essence of Sino-US trade war is the strategic competition between the old imperial United States and the rapidly developing Socialist China in the economic and trade field,which has the characteristics of structure, complexity and long-term nature, and cannot be solved by reducing the trade surplus with the United States. Therefore, we must analyze scientifically and deal with it calmly.